This study was designed to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the oil export performance in Nigeria from the year 1980 to 2018, and in the research, the use of secondary time series data was adopted. The research focuses on determining the cause and impact of exchange rate fluctuation and inflation rate on the oil export price. Its focus on this objective is to determine the relationship trend between exchange rate, inflation rate and oil export price. The unit root test was used to check for the order of integration; the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL) was used for the short run regression; the ARDL bounds test was used to determine if there is a long run relationship. Some suggestions and recommendations were made based on the findings including the fact that the government should create incentive such as loans subsidy to small scale industries, thereby encouraging them to process domestic goods into processed goods that will help boost our export.
TABLE OF CONTEN
Title page i
Approval page ii
Dedication iii
Acknowledgement iv
Abstract v
Table of content vi-viii
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background of study 1-3
1.2 Statement of problem 3-4
1.3 Objective of the study 4
1.4 Research questions 4
1.5 Research hypothesis 5
1.6 Significance of study 5-6
1.7 Scope of study 7
1.8 Organization of study 7
1.9 Limitation of study 7
CHAPTER TWO - LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Conceptual framework
2.1.1 Concept of exchange rate 8-10
2.1.2 Types of exchange rate 10-11
2.1.3 Causes of exchange rate fluctuation 11-14
2.1.4 Concept of oil export trade 14-15
2.2 Theoretical framework
2.2.1 Theories of exchange rate 15-18
2.3 Empirical framework 18-26
2.4 Gap to fill 27
CHAPTER THREE - RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Theoretical framework 28
3.2 Model specification 28-29
3.3 Methodology 29
3.4 “A Priori” Expectation 29-30
3.5 Estimation technique 30
3.6 Source of data 30
CHAPTER FOUR - DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS
4.0 Introduction 31
4.1 Data presentation 31-33
4.2 Data analysis and result interpretation
4.2.1 Descriptive statistics of data 33-35
4.2.2 Unit root test 36
4.2.3 Auto regressive distributed lag 36-37
4.2.4 Interpretation of table 4 37-38
4.2.5 Co-efficient of determination (R2) and Adjusted R2 38
4.2.6 Cointegration test (bounds test) 38-39
4.2.7 Long run coefficients 39-40
CHAPTER FIVE - SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
5.0 Introduction 41
5.1 Summary 41
5.2 Conclusion 41-42
5.3 Recommendation 42
References 43-47
Appendix 48-60
